The King Report November 1, 2019 Situation 6126
As a substitute of Halloween, it was Groundhog Day for shares on Thursday.
Deedster / Pixabay
ESZs slid throughout Asian buying and selling on disappointing financial information.
ESZs rallied when Europe opened, abetted by constructive financial information
ESZs tumbled when China doubted that Part Two-∞ may happen
Kudlow surfaced to rescue shares after the trade-talks associated decline.
Trump surfaced to tout the Part One commerce deal
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Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and extra
Samsung posts a steep earnings plunge
The world’s largest reminiscence chipmaker mentioned September-quarter working revenue fell by 56% to 7.eight trillion received ($6.7 billion), barely above the 7.7 trillion received estimate the corporate launched earlier. Income fell 5.three% to 62 trillion received, according to its earlier estimates… https://reut.rs/34kKzIr
China’s October Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.three from 49.eight: 49.eight was anticipated. The Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 52.eight from 53.7; 53.6 was anticipated.
China Doubts Lengthy-Time period Commerce Deal Attainable With Trump
Stage 1 within the works however Chinese language downplay prospect for others
Chinese language officers have warned they received’t budge on the thorniest points, in keeping with individuals accustomed to the matter. They continue to be involved about President Donald Trump’s impulsive nature and the danger he might again out of even the restricted deal either side say they need to signal within the coming weeks…
Beijing is open and keen to proceed talks after an preliminary section, however either side acknowledge that will probably be very tough to succeed in an settlement on the deep structural reforms the U.S. is pushing for, mentioned one Chinese language official accustomed to the talks…
“Even when they do get a section one, a section two goes to be considerably harder as a result of all of the actually tough points are being deferred,” mentioned Eswar Prasad, who as soon as led the Worldwide Financial Fund’s China staff and is now at Cornell College…
https://www.bloomberg.com/information/articles/2019-10-31/china-said-to-doubt-long-term-trade-deal-possible-with-trump
Euro-Space Financial system Places Up Struggle with Higher-Than-Forecast Development
3Q GDP rises zero.2%, with France, Italy beating expectations
For the European Central Financial institution, inflation stays a fear although, with the headline charge dropping to zero.7% in October, slipping farther from the purpose of just under 2%. Core costs confirmed an surprising pickup to 1.1%, however remained throughout the vary this yr…
Spain supplied extra constructive information, maintaining a zero.Four% tempo within the third quarter. France, much less uncovered to commerce difficulties and extra reliant on home demand, posted development of zero.three%. Italy’s financial system managed solely zero.1%, however that was not less than barely higher than the stagnation that was forecast…
https://www.bloomberg.com/information/articles/2019-10-31/euro-area-economy-unexpectedly-maintains-pace-of-expansion
BBG eight:44 ET: Kudlow Says U.S.-China Talks Going Easily: White Home Aide
9:24 ET @realDonaldTrump: China and the USA are engaged on deciding on a brand new web site for signing of Part One in all Commerce Settlement, about 60% of complete deal, after APEC in Chile was canceled resulting from unrelated circumstances. The brand new location will likely be introduced quickly. President Xi and President Trump will do signing!
ESZs opened on their session excessive of 3052. They fell to an Asian session low of 3045. The early European rally topped out at 3051.25 at Four:23 ET. The tumble on the disappointing US-China commerce information pushed ESZs to a session low of 3033.50 at 5:47 ET.
After a modest rally into the US repo market opening, ESZs retreated till Kudlow occurred. ESZs hit 3046.25 six minutes earlier than the NSYE open – the identical time as Trump’s above tweet. However, saner angles had the purple tickets prepared. ESZs and shares tumbled when the Chicago PMI was reported at 9:45 ET.
The Chicago PMI for October tumbled to 43.2 from 47.1; 48 was anticipated. New Orders declined to 37.zero, the bottom since March 2009. Apart from December 2015 (42.1), the earlier eight instances that the Chicago PMI printed beneath 44, the US was in recession. The GM strike may mitigate the October studying.
Chicago PMI
@DiMartinoBooth: “The NY Fed has a recession probability model that is based off of the 3-month/10-year inversion. Since 1950 every time that curve is inverted for 3 months or more it has indicated recession” – Fox Enterprise
The ugly Chicago PMI unleashed spirited defensive asset allocation. Bonds, utilities, gold and different protected haven performs rallied sharply. Shares, oil, copper and different industrial commodities plunged.
WaPo: A divided Home passes decision on impeachment inquiry, setting stage for televised hearings and launch of witness testimony [2 Dems voted no with the entire GOP]
Home approves symbolic impeachment inquiry decision https://yhoo.it/2Wrwm9Q
Trump blames impeachment inquiry for inventory market dip [He’s wrong! If the market believed impeachment was viable, it would collapse. However, Trump can and will blame Democrats if a recession appears.] https://trib.al/vLsdoJt
@RepDLesko: This decision for a sham impeachment course of is a farce: Transcripts aren’t required to be made public – Exculpatory proof doesn’t should be turned over. Democrats are deceptive the general public as soon as once more. This doesn’t open up the method, nor does it present transparency.
@ByronYork: Dems have extra secret depositions scheduled for subsequent week… Decision incorporates no requirement to launch transcripts. As for public hearings, no requirement past one. All at Schiff discretion… Blue state impeachment. Dem leaders addressing press today–Schiff, Nadler, Maloney, Jeffries, Engel, McGovern–hail from New York, California, and Massachusetts. Particularly, 4 from NYC, one from Hollywood, and one from Mass.
@thebradfordfile: Democrats are sacrificing Joe Biden to guard Obama. It is not going to work.
“Their hatred of the president exceed their caring about this nation and its individuals.” – Chuck Schumer
“It’s merely antithetical to our constitutional Democracy to make use of impeachment to overturn an election on partisan grounds… It might trample upon the selection made by the individuals by means of the electoral course of and do nice hurt…. Federalist 65 additionally sounds a warning… that impeachments inevitably threat being hijacked by partisan political forces …The Framers of the Structure knew that the best hazard related to impeachment was the presence of partisan factions that would dictate the end result.” – Joe Biden Senate Ground Speech February 12, 1999
https://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/tales/1999/02/12/senate.statements/biden.html
“Benjamin Franklin known as impeachment, “an alternative to assassination… The impact of impeachment is to overturn the favored will of the voters as expressed in a nationwide election. The individuals elected the president. They nonetheless help him. We’ve got no proper to overturn the thought-about judgment of the American individuals.” – Rep. Jerry Nadler, Home Judiciary Committee listening to, December 10, 1998
“I think it [impeachment] has a traumatic impact on the confidence that the American people have in government.” — Nancy Pelosi
“Jefferson feared that even our course of for impeachment might be a formidable partisan weapon. He feared decided faction in Congress would use it ‘… for eliminating any man whom they take into account as harmful to their views, and I have no idea that we may depend on one-third in an emergency.’” — Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) 2/12/1999
ESZs hit the session low of 3020.25 at 10:35 ET. ESZ rallies failed till the final hour of buying and selling as a result of defensive allocators saved promoting ESZ and shares whereas shopping for bonds and USZs. When USZs [Dec. 30-yr bond futures] closed at 15:00 ET, promoting of ESZs diminished. Add within the late manipulation to brighten October efficiency and presto! A rally appeared.
US Preliminary jobless claims elevated 5,000 to 218,000 because of the California wildfires.
http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/tales/1999/02/12/senate.statements/durbin.html
BOJ sends clearer sign of charge lower likelihood; retains coverage regular
BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda mentioned the central financial institution nonetheless had room to take already adverse charges even decrease to stop international uncertainties from hurting the world’s third-largest financial system…
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/31/reuters-america-update-Four-boj-sends-clearer-signal-of-rate-cut-chance-keeps-policy-steady.html
Trump Warns Johnson his Brexit Deal Makes U.S. Commerce Deal Exhausting
https://www.bloomberg.com/information/articles/2019-10-31/trump-warns-johnson-his-brexit-deal-makes-u-s-trade-deal-hard
Optimistic points of earlier session
October efficiency gaming saved shares from bigger losses
Final-hour efficiency gaming rally
Destructive points of earlier session
Ugly Chicago PMI induced rabid defensive asset allocation
Ambiguous points of earlier session
The Fed is in some stage of panic over one thing that’s not solely clear.
First Hour/Final Hour Motion [S&P 500 Index]
First Hour Down; Final Hour Up
Earlier session S&P 500 Index Excessive/Low: 3046.30; 3023.19
Pivot Level for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend for traders]: 3035.88
The Fed steadiness sheet as of October 30, 2019 is $Four.019823 trillion. It was $three.969 trillion the earlier week. That is a rise of $50.823 billion – in a single week! What’s so scary on the market?
In the present day – The October Employment Report may affect buying and selling if one thing considerably askew seems. In any other case, merchants will play for the anticipated begin of November rally. The impact of the GM will likely be essential in analyzing the report. Additionally, one of many largest Beginning/Dying Mannequin job additions happens in October. Final yr the B/D Mannequin crafted 275okay jobs. https://www.bls.gov/internet/empsit/cesbd.htm
1.06 million NFP NSA had been created in October 2018. This was adjusted to 277okay. So, the seasonal adjustment was -783okay. This displays the anticipated hiring for the vacations.
The S&P 500 Index’s Outdoors Day on Wednesday was decisively resolved to the draw back on Thursday. Astute merchants will likely be delicate to indicators that defensive asset allocators are available in the market. ESZs are +2.50 at 21:15 ET. Merchants anticipate a rally to begin November.
The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 2968; 100-day MA: 2957; 150-day MA: 2929; 200-day MA: 2886
The DJIA 50-day MA: 26,705; 100-day MA: 26,658; 150-day MA: 26,441; 200-day MA: 26,197
S&P 500 Index help: 3035, 3022-25, 3014, 3000, 2991, 2985, 2973-76, 2963, 2955, 2940, 2930-34
Resistance: 3045-50, 3062, 3068-70, 3080
Anticipated financial information: Oct NFP 85okay, Mfg -55okay [due to GM strike], Fee three.6%, Wages zero.three%, Workweek 34.Four, Labor Drive Participation Fee 63.1%; Markit Oct US Mfg PMI 51.5; ISM Oct Mfg 49, Costs Paid 50; Sept Development Spending zero.2% m/m; Wards Oct Complete Automobile Gross sales 17m; Dallas Fed Prez Kaplan 9:30 ET, Fed VCEO Clarida & Fed Gov Quarles & SF Fed Prez Daly 13:00 ET; NY Fed Prez Williams 14:30 ET; Anticipated earnings: CVX 1.46, CL 1.14, AIG 1.00, XOM .67, DISH .60
S&P 500 Index – Trender buying and selling mannequin and MACD for key time frames
Month-to-month: Trender and MACD are constructive – a detailed beneath 2502.93 triggers a promote sign
Weekly: Trender is constructive; MACD is adverse – a detailed beneath 2823.03 triggers a promote sign
Each day: Trender and MACD are constructive – a detailed beneath 2977.97 triggers a promote sign
Hourly: Trender and MACD are adverse – a detailed above 3039.56 triggers a purchase sign
We talked about that Horowitz’s report is perhaps delayed resulting from infighting on the DoJ. Purportedly, the report is being delayed resulting from UK and Australia associated points. These nations’ intel companies, plus Italy, are alleged to have been enlisted by US Spygate figures to ‘get Trump’.
Alexander Downer’s secret assembly with FBI led to Trump-Russia inquiry Might 17, 2018
The Australian authorities allowed its former ambassador to the UK, Alexander Downer, to participate in a “highly unusual” assembly with FBI brokers in 2016 to share proof he possessed about Russian meddling within the US presidential election marketing campaign, in keeping with new reviews.
It was a breach of diplomatic protocol – which got here after “tense deliberations” between Washington and Canberra – that helped to put the foundations for the particular counsel investigation into allegations of collusion between Donald Trump’s marketing campaign and Russia, in keeping with the New York Instances…
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/might/17/alexander-downers-secret-meeting-with-fbi-led-to-trump-russia-inquiry-report
Final night time, we heard that Barr has overruled those who advocated for a delay. Extra rumors from final night time: Durham has empaneled a grand jury in Connecticut. 4 ex-State Division officers entered on Wednesday and two yesterday. Barr will maintain a press convention right now.
Late Wednesday night time/early Thursday, the MSM reported high NSC official would testify that he noticed DJT make a ‘quid pro quo’ with Ukraine officers – a requirement for a public assertion by the Ukrainian president committing to analyze Burisma. Dems and the MSM had been euphoric! Nevertheless it was faux information.
NBC eight:02 CT 10/31/10: Ex-Trump Russia and Europe adviser Morrison arrives to testify in impeachment inquiry – Morrison, who resigned Wednesday, raised issues concerning the Trump administration’s method to Ukraine… Morrison will likely be requested to elucidate that “sinking feeling” he bought when Trump demanded that Ukraine’s president examine former Vice President Biden and meddling within the 2016 election… [Apparently this is all fake news!]
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-impeachment-inquiry/ex-trump-russia-europe-adviser-morrison-arrives-testify-impeachment-inquiry-n1074441
Not solely was this extra MSM faux information, Morrison debunked the demand allegation in addition to [NeverTrumper] Invoice Taylor’s claims and testimony to Schiff.
CBS’s @ArdenFarhi: CBS Information has realized NSC’s Senior Director for European Affairs Tim Morrison was on the Trump-Zelensky name and advised the investigating committees, “I want to be clear, I was not concerned that anything illegal was discussed.”
NSC Official Tim Morrison to Schiff: ‘I Was Not Concerned That Anything Illegal Was Discussed’ In Trump-Ukraine Telephone Name – Tim Morrison, a former Nationwide Safety Council official below Trump, advised Rep. Adam Schiff in testimony right now that he was by no means involved that Trump mentioned something unlawful in his July 25 telephone name with the Ukrainian president…
Morrison additionally identified key factual inaccuracies in testimony offered by William Taylor, a State Division official who works within the U.S. embassy in Kiev, Ukraine. Morrison mentioned that, opposite to Taylor’s claims, Morrison by no means met with the Ukrainian Nationwide Safety advisor in his personal lodge room. Morrison additionally mentioned Taylor falsely claimed that Ambassador Gordon Sondland demanded a public assertion from the Ukrainian president committing to analyze Burisma…
Morrison testified that the transcript of the telephone name that was declassified and launched by Trump in late September “accurately and completely reflects the substance of the call,” and that he was involved that the substance of the decision can be leaked to the media. Morrison mentioned he instantly knowledgeable a NSC lawyer about his issues that the telephone name can be leaked…
https://thefederalist.com/2019/10/31/nsc-official-tim-morrison-to-schiff-i-was-not-concerned-that-anything-illegal-was-discussed-in-trump-ukraine-phone-call/
Fox’s, quickly to be CBS’s, Catherine Herridge reviews that Morrison mentioned he was warned about Lt. Col. Vindman’s judgement and testified that Vindman had not less than one time violated chain of command rules, which contradicted Vindman’s assertion to Schiff that he at all times obeyed the chain of command, particularly on Ukraine. https://twitter.com/kbq225/standing/1189961211099545601
@seanmdav: Tim Morrison’s testimony destroys Schiff’s narrative, which is why Schiff insists on all these interviews occurring in secret. That manner he can lie about what witnesses say and stop the reality from each seeing the sunshine of day.
@JackPosobiec: The NSC official testifying right now is actually accusing Ciaramella, Vindman, and Taylor of mendacity below oath on numerous particulars they included of their accounts of the Trump-Ukraine name
Clearly somebody from Group Schiff leaked out damaging however faux information and the MSM swallowed it. Please be aware that for the previous few weeks, the MSM has issued tales that claimed a witness would supply damning testimony on Trump and facilitate an impeachment. It has all been faux information. Both the MSM is fabricating tales to hurt Trump or somebody on Group Schiff is leaking BS to hurt Trump.
@RepDougCollins: “This is my problem to Mr. Schiff — you need to be Ken Starr, be Ken Starr. Come to the Judiciary Committee, be the primary witness & take each query requested of you. Beginning with your personal involvement with the whistleblower. People, this ain’t over. Prepare.”
https://twitter.com/thehill/standing/1189977340274593793
John Solomon: Debunking a number of the Ukraine scandal myths about Biden and election interference
The Details: The Ukrainian embassy in Washington confirmed to me this previous April Democratic Nationwide Committee contractor named Alexandra Chalupa did, in truth, solicit dust on Donald Trump and Paul Manafort in the course of the spring of 2016 in hopes of spurring a pre-election congressional listening to into the Trump marketing campaign’s ties to Russia…
The Details: There are two documented episodes involving Ukrainian authorities officers’ efforts to affect the 2016 American presidential election… a court docket final December dominated Parliamentary member and a senior Ukrainian legislation enforcement official improperly tried to affect the U.S. election by releasing monetary information in spring and summer season 2016 from an investigation into Trump marketing campaign chairman Paul Manafort’s lobbying actions…
The second episode occurred on U.S. soil again in August 2016 when Ukraine’s then-ambassador to Washington, Valeriy Chaly, took the extraordinary step of writing an OpEd in The Hill criticizing GOP nominee Donald Trump and his views on Russia simply three months earlier than Election Day….
The Details: Joe Biden is captured on videotape bragging about his effort to strong-arm Ukraine’s president into firing Prosecutor Normal Viktor Shokin…
The Details: This is without doubt one of the most egregiously false statements unfold by the media. Ukraine’s official case file for Burisma Holdings, offered to me by prosecutors, exhibits there have been two energetic investigations into the gasoline agency and its founder Mykola Zlochevsky in early 2016, one involving corruption allegations and the opposite involving unpaid taxes…
The Details: Trump couldn’t have pressured the Ukrainians into opening a brand new Burisma investigation in July as a result of the Ukrainian Prosecutor Normal’s workplace had already achieved so on March 28, 2019, or three months earlier than the decision… [Much more at link]
Debunking some of the Ukraine scandal myths about Biden and election interference
CIA “Whistleblower” Eric Ciaramella Labored with DNC Operative Alexandra Chalupa in Creation of Trump-Russia Collusion Hoax
Ciaramella labored with a Democratic Nationwide Committee operative who dug up dust on the Trump marketing campaign in the course of the 2016 election, inviting her into the White Home for conferences, former White Home colleagues mentioned. The operative, Alexandra Chalupa, a Ukrainian-American who supported Hillary Clinton, led an effort to hyperlink the Republican marketing campaign to the Russian authorities. “He knows her. He had her in the White House,” mentioned one former co-worker… https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/10/huge-cia-whistleblower-eric-cairamella-worked-with-dnc-operative-alexandra-chalupa-in-creation-of-trump-russia-collusion-hoax/
@johncardillo: The most important scandal in DC that’s being purposefully buried by the MSM is Ciaramella/Chalupa connection. This relationship is the genesis for a lot of what we’re seeing right now and explains Schiff’s hysteria. Barr/Durham are manner too shut [to revealing the coup]…
Judicial Watch: Paperwork Reveal Obama State Division Official in Contact with Russian Embassy Political Chief One Month earlier than Trump Inauguration
“The State Division has nonetheless not absolutely defined its function in gathering and disseminating Christopher Steele’s false allegations about President Trump’s ties to Russia,” mentioned Each day Caller Information Basis President Neil Patel. “The latest documents obtained by Judicial Watch on behalf of The Daily Caller News Foundation raise new and important questions about the role played by Jonathan Winer, who played a key role as Steele’s conduit to U.S. diplomats.”…“The Kerry State Division and Jonathan Winer labored hand-in-glove with the Clinton Fusion GPS spy Christopher Steele…
@Barnes_Law: How unhealthy is Deep State politics? Simply have a look at the faux whistleblower for #impeachment: a 30-year previous Yale child. The final group of Yalies to run overseas coverage gifted us coups, corruption & a long time of catastrophe (#Dulles). I attended Yale, and no Yale child I met ought to be close to energy.
A number of days in the past, Biden mentioned: “My daughter is a social worker… I wish I had raised one Republican… to go out and make some real money.” [You can’t make this up!]
https://twitter.com/LizRNC/standing/1189617560276389894?s=09
source https://jobsearchtips.net/ukrainian-president-committing-to-analyze-burisma-faux-information/
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