Moderna, Inc. Released Earnings Last Week And Analysts Lifted Their Price Target To US$33.10

NASDAQ:MRNA) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 44% to US$26.16 in the week following its annual results. It was a moderately negative result overall – revenue fell 5.3% short of analyst estimates at US$60m, and statutory losses were in line with analyst expectations, at US$1.55 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there’s been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see analysts’ latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.” data-reactid=”27″ type=”text”>The investors in Moderna, Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:MRNA) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 44% to US$26.16 in the week following its annual results. It was a moderately negative result overall – revenue fell 5.3% short of analyst estimates at US$60m, and statutory losses were in line with analyst expectations, at US$1.55 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there’s been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see analysts’ latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Moderna ” data-reactid=”28″ type=”text”> See our latest analysis for Moderna

NasdaqGS:MRNA Past and Future Earnings, February 28th 2020

After the latest results, the nine analysts covering Moderna are now predicting revenues of US$84.5m in 2020. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 40% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$1.48 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$91.1m and US$1.56 per share in losses. While revenue forecasts have been revised downwards, analysts look to have become more optimistic on the company’s earnings power, given the small lift in to earnings per share forecasts.

There was a decent 13% increase in the price target to US$33.10, with analysts clearly signalling that the expected reduction in losses is a positive, despite a weaker revenue outlook. That’s not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Moderna analyst has a price target of US$40.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$30.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock’s future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way to assess these estimates is by comparing them to past performance, and seeing whether analysts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the market. For example, we noticed that Moderna’s rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to grow at 40%, well above its historical decline of 22% a year over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the market are forecast to see their revenue grow 16% per year. Although Moderna’s revenues are expected to improve, it seems that analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider market.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although industry data suggests that Moderna’s revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider market. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. Analysts also upgraded their price target, suggesting that analysts believe the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

see them free on our platform here.” data-reactid=”46″ type=”text”>With that in mind, we wouldn’t be too quick to come to a conclusion on Moderna. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year’s profits. We have forecasts for Moderna going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

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